To try to answer to that question, we’re tabulating the cumulative win probability added figures for every player in the postseason. But we’ve added a twist: The deeper we get into the playoffs, the more weight the WPA carries. The division series counts double the wild-card round, then we’ll double it again for the championship series and, finally, once again for the World Series.
This means that players who shine in the early rounds can still get on the leaderboard, but it’s more difficult. Coming through when the championship leverage is at its highest is what becoming an October hero is all about.
Monday’s hero: Richie Palacios steps up
It’s hard to win a championship without some unexpected heroics and Richie Palacios is one member of the Rays who has stepped up this October. Tampa Bay spread out the WPA in their Game 6 clincher against Cleveland, but Palacios’ two-run double off lefty Tim Herrin was the most impactful play of the game. Palacios is an unsung player who mostly filled the heavy half of a second base platoon with Ben Williamson during the season. Just 64 of Palacios’ 399 plate appearances this season came against lefties and he had just a .478 OPS in those trips to the plate. Palacios had just nine hits off lefties all season. Hence the platoon. But sometimes October yields strange results. During the postseason, including the key double off Herrin, he is 5-for-9 against southpaws with a 1.222 OPS. Spooky season indeed.
How the postseason WPA and AXE index work
As mentioned above, each player’s win probability added (WPA) is tracked on a per-game basis. Each round of the playoffs counts double that of the previous round. The tabulation is then converted to an AXE-style index in which 100 represents the average for all postseason players. The “Change” column looks in the changes in AXE numbers from the previous day for players who were in action. You can sort this column by clicking on it to see the day’s heroes.
