In September and October 2026, as a strong El Niño brought severe drought to New Guinea, fires scorched the island and thick smoke shrouded large swaths of it for weeks. The VIIRS instrument on the NOAA-20 satellite captured an image of dense smoke streaming from the southern part of the island on October 11, 2026. Air pollution levels soared, delaying and canceling flights, closing schools, and prompting officials to advise children and older people to wear masks.
Impact on air quality and health
“Sometimes smoke that has drifted into the convection of nearby thunderstorms will get washed out or lofted up into the upper troposphere, but a lot of smoke stays near the surface and causes air quality problems,” said Robert Field, an associate research scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University. “It’s a horrible situation.”
Record carbon emissions
According to the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED), fires in Papua New Guinea, located on the eastern half of the island, released nearly 32 megatons of carbon by October 19, marking the highest level on record for that point in the year. “Emissions are already much higher than the 2015 total for the year, and it’s very likely that this will the highest year on record for Papua New Guinea, even surpassing 1997,” said Guido van der Werf, a fire scientist at Wageningen University & Research.
On the Indonesian side, known as West New Guinea or Indonesian Papua, carbon emissions exceeded 35 megatons. This represents the third highest total following 2015 and 1997, which were also El Niño years marked by severe fires. Van der Werf led the development of GFED, a modeling framework utilizing remote sensing and vegetation characteristics to estimate fire extent and emissions over nearly three decades.
Drought conditions and human factors
Unusually dry weather caused by El Niño shifting rainfall patterns primed ecosystems across the island to burn. The southernmost part of Papua New Guinea, dominated by the Trans-Fly region’s savannas and grasslands, went more than 90 consecutive days without rain, according to Papua New Guinea’s National Weather Service. Since August, parts of the region experienced precipitation of roughly 5 to 10 percent of normal. Local news outlets reported resulting crop failures, water shortages, and school disruptions.
Researchers note that humans ignite the vast majority of fires in this normally wet region for crop management, pasture maintenance, deforestation, land clearing, and hunting. Under dry conditions, managed fires frequently escape and burn uncontrollably as wildfires.
Deforestation and future outlook
“We’re seeing an exceptionally high level of fire activity in Papua New Guinea and Eastern Indonesia, particularly Indonesian Papua and Kalimantan, this year compared with Sumatra and other parts of Western Indonesia,” said Yang Chen, an associate researcher at the University of California, Irvine. “Papua has emerged as Indonesia’s new deforestation frontier.”
Over the past two decades, land in Indonesian Papua has been cleared for industrial oil palm and pulpwood plantations. According to Global Forest Watch, the region lost 27,000 hectares of primary forest in 2025, which is nearly double the 2024 total and the highest amount since 2017. Researchers expect the fires to continue until heavy wet season rains arrive in southern New Guinea, typically in early November.
