Welcome to the small-market World Series. This is a theme you’re likely to encounter a lot this week, as the momentum toward this Rays-Brewers showdown gathers.
To be sure, there are a number of similarities between the Brewers and Rays, but those similarities are mostly top-line items. The sub-traits beneath them are very different. Take their markets, for example. They are small in different ways. By metro population figures and Major League Baseball’s internal market score, Milwaukee is at the bottom of the league, while Tampa Bay ranks closer to the middle. But if you look at revenue, their places flip. The Milwaukee metro area might be small, but the Brewers are a regional franchise that has fans all over Wisconsin.
It’s a similar situation on the field. Both clubs have known for pivoting away from the onslaught of strikeouts and home runs in today’s game. But when you dig a bit deeper, it’s clear they took different routes to get to the Fall Classic. This series isn’t alluring because of how the teams are alike, but how they are different. And this is why this promises to be a tremendously entertaining matchup between two legit No. 1 seeds, one in which two of the game’s best managers — Tampa Bay’s Kevin Cash and Milwaukee’s Pat Murphy — might play outsized roles.
How do the offenses compare?
The key stat that will spur many to lump the Milwaukee and Tampa Bay offenses together is this: The Rays ranked 29th in percentage of runs coming via the homer, ahead of only the Brewers. This is indeed how they are most similar — neither club relies on homers to score. But while both teams have power, they have different strategies about when to emphasize it. The Rays ranked 13th in slugging with the bases empty, but 17th with men on base. The Brewers ranked 24th in slugging with the bases empty, but fifth with men on base. Similar results, different paths. For both clubs, it’s truer to say that they don’t rely on homers than to say they can’t hit them.
During the playoffs, both teams have featured more or less balanced offenses, at least in relation to the rest of the playoff field. The Brewers have scored via the long ball 35% of the time; the Rays are at 31%, both below the overall playoff average of 38%. Both rank in the top half of playoff teams in runs per game both with, and without, home runs. Both teams hit .258 during the regular season, with the Brewers topping the majors once you go out a fourth decimal point.
With no one on base, the Brewers had by far the lowest swing rate in the majors (42.5%); the Rays were 15th (47.1%). The Brewers saw the most pitches in those spots (4.07 pitches per plate appearance); the Rays were 28th (3.82). The Rays had the second-best rate of putting the ball in play (78.2%), while the Brewers had the second-best BABIP (.306). The Rays are all about ambushing early in the count, especially with no one on base, while the Brewers grind.
What about pitching and defense?
These are two of the best pitching staffs in baseball and two of the best at overall run prevention. In the playoffs, the Rays’ rotation has outperformed every other team’s starters, largely because of how hot Drew Rasmussen and Freddy Peralta have gotten. The Brewers have gotten less from their starters, but the dominance of their bullpen has been one of the postseason’s leading narratives. Runs will be hard to come by in the World Series.
There are stark differences in collective emphasis between the two staffs. The Brewers led the majors in strikeout rate; the Rays led in walk rate. Perhaps due to their focus on strike-throwing, the Rays were more susceptible to the long ball. In terms of the rate of pitches in the zone, Milwaukee actually ranked higher (second) than Tampa Bay (third). The real difference that will jump out is the Rays’ much-touted use of the changeup, by far the highest usage in the majors. The Brewers led the majors in hard stuff — two-seamers, four-seamers, cutters.
How do the managers compare?
Cash and Murphy have both won two Manager of the Year awards. Murphy is likely to win a third straight this season. Cash has a chance at his third, too, though Chicago’s Will Venable is probably the AL favorite. Still, it adds up to the same thing: These are two of baseball’s elite managers, perhaps its two best. Cash is a bona fide skipper who is empowered to run his team as he sees fit, operating as an extension of the Rays’ cutting-edge front office. Murphy’s front office is as innovative as any team, with the Rays perhaps being the only exception, but Murphy relies on a preternatural grasp of baseball concepts honed over time at every level of the game.
In terms of true talent ratings, there will be 11 top 100 players in the series. The Brewers feature six, including No. 5 Jacob Misiorowski and No. 6 Turang. The Rays have five, led by No. 11 Junior Caminero and No. 13 Rasmussen. The MLB median for top 100 players on a team is three. These teams might not have baseball’s most famous rosters, Misiorowski aside, but both are laden with top-flight, baseball-playing stars. They are the two best teams in baseball, each vying for the first title in franchise history.
